Sunday 5 February 2012

Xi Jinping’s visit to be 1st by a would-be China president

NEW DELHI: India and China are working on a possible visit by Chinese vice-president Xi Jinping sometime this year. If he does come this year, it would be the first time a prospective president of China would have visited India before assuming charge. President Hu Jintaowill be in India in March for the BRICS summit, which is being held here this year. 

Meanwhile, India and China exchanged written frameworks for the settlement of the border dispute during the recent meeting of the special representatives. Shivshankar Menon and Dai Bingguo will now parse the other's framework to try and arrive at a common framework which will be the basis for ultimately putting a line on the ground. Despite the exchange of documents though, this process is a long way away from completion. 

The special representatives talks have now evolved into a forum for reviewing bilateral relations. This year, India and China agreed to work together for maritime security, not only in the Gulf of Aden but even eastwards towards the Straits of Malacca, and further. "Our understanding is that we're working on cooperating on maritime seucirty that will not only be confined to the Gulf of Aden only," said sources. This would be a major confidence-building exercise if carried through. 

This fledgling effort, sources said, was being hit by statements from the US director of national intelligence, James Clapper predicting a limited war between India and China in the near future.

India and China also reviewed the Iran issue. Chinese premier Wen Jiabao's recent tour of the Gulf Arab states, conspicuously leaving Iran out of his itinerary, has been interpreted in India as keeping Beijing's options open among energy suppliers. While both countries maintain their opposition to Iran's nuclear programme, India's concerns in the region are slightly different from China's. India worries about energy sources and its 6 million people living and working in these countries. 

While China shares the concerns on energy, China, India feels, also has to be concerned about its status as an arms supplier. Apart from supplying Silkworm missiles to Saudi Arabia, China is a major supplier of small arms in the region. Given the chronic instability in these countries, China is worried about any potential backlash. 

China's overseas workers are coming under greater pressure. According to Indian figures, 22 Chinese nationals were killed in Pakistan alone in the last year; last week 25 Chinese workers were kidnapped by Bedouins in the north of Egypt's Sinai peninsula, on their way to work at a military-owned cement factory; in Sudan, 29 Chinese workers have been kidnapped by SPLM rebels in the south Kordofan province. Indian analysts say this bespeaks a trend that cannot be acceptable to Beijing.

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